Inter-Provincial Migration Projection to 2100 by Urban-Rural State in China——Based on Provincial and Province-Capital-Level Policy

Xu Shuqiang , Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University

Since 2017, provincial and province-capital-level talent attraction policies spring up to maintain rapid and sustainable development in local economy. These talent policies target to graduating students, overseas students, domestic leading talents, international talents and so on. In recent years, importing talents’ competition is growing in intensity and population in provincial capital is gradually increasing, which is mostly accounted by inflow migration, population converging to capital in province and inter-province migration. By combining talents policy in each province and province development plan, basing on migration data in the latest census and sample survey, and setting appropriate arguments, we can do migration projection and get a better understanding of dynamics in migration. Absolutely, there should be some new transition trend and features in migration dynamics, also with speeding up in urbanization.

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 Presented in Session P3. Poster Session Migration, Economics, Environment, Methods, History and Policy