Demographic Fairness and Migration in the Light of Demographic Projections for the EU28 in 2015-2060

Marcin Stonawski , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) / Cracow University of Economics
Michaela Potancokova, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

The free movement of workers in the European Union – one of four main freedoms guaranteed in the Lisbon Treaty - stimulates the mobility of citizens between the Member States (MS), predominantly from the eastern to more affluent western countries. At the same time, anti-immigration sentiments are rising across the EU with ever more MS favouring posing limits on immigration from the third countries and leaning towards policy of closed doors. The article explores the potential demographic consequences of these phenomena. We use the model of multi-dimensional population dynamics, developed for CEPAM project for demographic and human capital projections for the EU, and formulate several stylised what-if scenarios that illustrate a range of future intra-EU and international migration situations. We illustrate possible future demographic effects of EU mobility on eastern and western Member States in the context of different possible strategies of dealing with international migration to the EU. We analyse the projection results through the lens of the proposed concept of demographic fairness of a solution, understood as the quality of solution that treats all populations equally in terms of demographic outcomes, in our case particularly population size and structure.

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 Presented in Session P3. Poster Session Migration, Economics, Environment, Methods, History and Policy