Unemployment and Fertility in Italy. A Regional Level Data Panel Analysis.

Gabriele Ruiu , Università degli Studi di Sassari
Marco Breschi, Università degli Studi di Sassari

The effect of increasing unemployment on the decision to have children is not completely clear, from either the theoretical or empirical point of view. We focus our empirical analysis on a peculiar context: Italy. Indeed, the demographic behavior in this Country challenges the most influential theoretical predictions developed in social sciences. Our results indicate that a negative long run relationship exists between the two variables, but some surprising results are obtained when the short-run is considered. In contrast to previous empirical findings, our results indicate a that fertility is pro-cyclical in Southern Italy, while the opposite is true in the North.

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 Presented in Session 126. Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Fertility