Relationship between Life-Course Events: Marriage, Fertility and Moving Intentions in Central and Eastern Europe

Vytenis Juozas Deimantas , NIDI

This paper investigates the connection between the pairs of marriage-moving and fertility-moving intentions. The paper hypothesises that life-course events may be incompatible, independent or associated. In order to verify the hypotheses, Generations and Gender Survey wave 1 data is used. It contains variables on marriage, fertility, and moving intentions as well as standard demographic covariates. The sample consists of respondents from Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Romania. Seemingly unrelated bivariate ordered probit regression is adopted to estimate the relationship between intentions. We find a positive association between marriage and moving as well as fertility and moving intentions. These findings have the following implications. First, there is an indication that life-course events are planned jointly. Secondly, the demographic decline in CEE can be exacerbated in two ways: loss of adult inhabitants and their future children. Thirdly, the future research ought to focus on realisation of connected marriage, fertility, and mobility intentions.

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 Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course