Third Demographic Transition in Europe? An Answer Based on Current Demographic Conditions

Giampaolo Lanzieri , European Commission, Eurostat

The contribution of migration to the demography of the receiving populations does not end with the migration event. The number of live births from foreign-born mothers has been increasing over the latest years and it is above 20% of the total number of live births in many European countries. When these countries are on relatively low fertility levels, these dynamics may lead to experience the Third Demographic Transition (Coleman, 2006). The study looks at whether, under the current demographic conditions, such Transition is materialising in European countries, and how it would spread across ages. In order to do so, migration-related data are first estimated to gain a high level of granularity, and then aggregated in a composite variable on 'migration background'. This procedure is applied on data for the period 2014-2016 on 32 European countries, deriving 'migration background'-specific fertility, mortality, and emigration rates. This is the input to long-term population projections, which give the possibility to assess the demographic dynamics across ages and over time, and to formulate different assumptions as regard the immigration levels and the type of migrants' integration (assimilation or multiculturalism). This latter feature is actually crucial for the main outcome of the study, as it is shown that, in the case of multicultural societies, German-speaking countries may undergo the third demographic transition before the end of the century - would the current demographic conditions persist.

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 Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course