Assessing the Effect of Mortgage Loan and Housing Condition on Reproductive Outcomes with Use of Propensity Score Matching.

Mikolaj Lewicki , University of Warsaw
Krzysztof Tymicki, Warsaw School of Economics

Study aims at analysis of mortgage loans on housing conditions and composition of households in Poland (especially number of children). Homeownership rate in Poland, as in many countries of CEE is high, reaching almost 75%. Most of the households in Poland strive to own an apartment by taking out the mortgage loan. The research argues that financial burden associated with mortgage loan might have an effect on number of children due to inhibiting effect on transition to second child. Significant overcrowding (49% of the households live in overcrowded dwellings, acc. to Eurostat) and limited financial resources might lead to limiting family size. This could be caused by anticipation of relative deterioration of living conditions related to birth of second child and lack of possibility to increase dwellings’ size. Use of Household Budget Survey allows for detailed analysis of financial situation, housing conditions as well as composition of a household. Propensity score matching method allows to isolate the effect of mortgage loan and dwelling size on the outcome of interest while controlling for other socio-economic characteristics both on a household and individual level. Preliminary analyses suggest that absolute burden related to mortgage loan has no significant effect on number of children. Significant negative effect on number of children appears in case of smaller dwellings as compared to larger dwellings. Results imply a significant effect in case of interaction between long term involvement in mortgage loan and purchase of a small dwelling as well as in case of debt-to-income ratio.

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 Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course