Spanish Fertility: How Low Can It Go?

Albert Esteve , Center for Demographic Studies (Barcelona)
Ryohei Mogi, University of Oxford
Diederik Boertien, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED)
Mariona Lozano, CED, Centre for Demographic Studies

In 1991, Spain was the first country (together with Italy) in the world to cross the ‘lowest-low fertility’ threshold of 1,3 children per woman. Since then, Spain has been increasingly alluded to in the demographic literature. Despite such allusions, existing research lacks in-depth analysis about why Spanish fertility has remained so low for such a long period of time. To fill this gap, this study presents an overview of recent fertility patterns in Spain using data from “long awaited” and Spanish Fertility Survey, held in 2018. First, we examine the reproductive trajectories of men and women born between 1965 and 1989 over the life-course and by educational attainment. Second, we investigate the short-term reproductive intentions and the reasons for not having (more) children among women and men at the time of the survey by parity-specific fertility. Third, we examine the implications of emancipation, union formation, and work for transition probabilities to first-child based on the experiences of women and men born in Spain between 1965 and 1989.

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 Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course