Spatiotemporal Variation of Non-Marital Fertility across Czechia Contrasted to General Fertility Change.

Jitka Rychtarikova , Charles University in Prague

Nonmarital fertility has been dramatically increasing in Czechia from the start of the 1990s. The percentage of nonmarital live births grew from 9.8 in 1991 up to 48.5 in 2018 and the share of live births to single mothers among live births outside marriage rose from 72.6 % in 1991 up to 90.3 % in 2018. The objective of the contribution is to investigate recent sharp increase of nonmarital fertility (intensity and structure) in Czechia, using two spatial perspectives: a) municipality size (9 categories) and smaller territorial units, i.e. Municipalities with Extended Powers (MEP). The analysis focuses on indicators computed from individual records. In order to identify and compare the spatial fertility patterns Optimized Hotspot Analysis was used (ArcGIS Pro 2.4.2). To assess the impact of changing legitimacy status of live births, mother’s age and municipality size on average birth order, the multiple regression with categorical predictors was applied (SAS 9.4.). In 1991 as well as in 2018, the difference between single and marital birth orders was statistically significant when controlling for age and municipality size. It indicates that single motherhood is still not a full alternative to a family based on marriage in Czechia. The use of Optimized Hotspot showed that contrary to expectations, the sharp increase in the proportion of live births to single mothers up to 2018 moderated the spatial differences, since the areas showing non-significant differences in this indicator have enlarged. The opposite time trend can be observed when looking at spatial pattern of total fertility rate.

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 Presented in Session P3. Poster Session Migration, Economics, Environment, Methods, History and Policy