Hajiieh Bibi Razeghi Nasrabad , National Institute for Population Research, Iran.
Meimanat Hosseini Chavoshi, Australian National University
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, The University of Tehran
Delay in the second child's birth can have a significant tempo effect on fertility. The main purpose of this study is to examine the spacing between first birth and second pregnancy and determine the probability of second pregnancy. This study uses data from the 2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey. The sample comprise of 363 married women aged 15-49 years old who had one child at the time of the survey in Tehran city. The Kaplan-Meier test was used to determine the birth interval and the gamma regression analysis was used to identify the determinants of the likelihood of a second birth. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was considered as a criterion to select the best model (s). Kaplan-Meier test showed that the median time of birth of first child to second pregnancy was 65 months (95% CI; 57.67-72.32 & SE 3.73). After 120 months (10 years) of the first birth, 75% of women reach a second pregnancy. Living in urban areas, college education, and delayed first births increase the survival time of a single child and reduce the likelihood of a next pregnancy. Increasing the ideal number of children increases the likelihood of a next pregnancy. Given the high correlation between low fertility, and increasing marriage age, in line with recent pronatalist population policies, it is suggested the reduction of the gap between first birth and second pregnancy would lead to higher fertility.
Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course