Lifetime Effects of Early Mortality Caused by Unintentional Accidents on Fiscal Pressure of Social Security Pension Fund in Iran

Majid Koosheshi , Assistant professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran
Reza Reyhan, MA in Demography

The pension systems in Iran are mainly the PAGE-DB ones. Revenues of pension systems in Iran are actuarial-based whereas liabilities are social-based, which is due to pension laws. As a result, there are growing liabilities leading pension systems facing difficulties from imbalance between their liabilities and revenues during the last decades. Therefore, the imbalance cannot be analyzed only with actuarial factors. It is thought provoking that the problem is occurring during the first phase of demographic dividend and Iran still has a young age structure. Given the situation outlined, the impact of other demographic factors should be investigated. One of these factors is early and preventable deaths, such as early mortality caused by unintentional accidents, which has been always the second or third cause of death in Iran. Under the fixed economic and actuarial conditions and using census, registration, and administrative data in 2011 and 2016 and running multi decrement and working-life tables, the research aims to measure and analyze life-time effects of early death caused by unintentional accidents to address the aforesaid imbalance of Social Security Pension Fund (SSPF). Findings indicate that 595379 years of lost premiums will be incurred only by early mortality caused by unintentional accidents, which will make the SSPF lose the revenues of 23160 billion IRR. Furthermore, the SSPF will be obliged to pay 269553 years of pension for beneficiaries of the insured died of unintentional accidents i.e. their wives, daughters and sons, which will impose 18086 billion IRR on the liabilities of the SSPF.

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 Presented in Session P2. Poster Session Ageing, Health and Mortality