Natalia Arruda, unicamp
Flavia Andrade, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Background: Brazil is experiencing a demographic transition, marked by regional inequalities. It is possible to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality may modify the pattern of demographic transition, typifying a phenomenon known as Simpson's Paradox. Objective: To analyze the effect of inequality, poverty and social development on the Brazilian population dynamics, checking the occurrence of Simpson's paradox in the demographic transition. Methods: We evaluated the correlation between demographic indicators, stratifying Brazilian federation units into groups according to social indicators. Results: The transition has been occurring in all FUs, with persistence of the distance between them, even with reduction over the years. Simpson's paradox was observed when the analysis was performed according to the census year, and social indicator, especially for the year 1991. Conclusion: The challenge is to understand how the Brazilian demographic dynamics can be analyze, and to understand how these contextual factors change their pattern.
Presented in Session P3. Poster Session Migration, Economics, Environment, Methods, History and Policy