Tomislav Belic , Catholic University of Croatia
Hrvoje Stefancic, Catholic University of Croatia
Roko Misetic, Catholic University of Croatia
Evidence point to reversal of fertility-development relationship at high levels of development, but the robustness of the reversal is still debated. This work examines the sub-national relationship between economic development and age-specific fertility rates among EU countries in 2015. A particular emphasis is placed on 20-39 years cohorts. The relationship is analyzed for each 5-years cohort and each of the 26 European countries individually, covering 1358 NUTS 3 regions. We document a weak negative relationship between GDP per capita and TFR among most countries. In some countries, relationship is slightly positive. Fertility decomposition into age groups revealed that fertility-development relationship is generally formed by two opposite relationships. There is a negative relationship between GDP per capita and age-specific fertility rates until the age of 30. After age of 30 the relationship is positive. Considering the Beta coefficient in simple linear regression, in younger cohorts and among less developed European Union countries, the impact of GDP per capita on age-specific fertility rates is greater. For more economically developed countries, the impact on age-specific fertility rates is diminishing. Direction of the fertility-development relationship depends on share of pre 30 age and after 30 age births. For further research it would be interesting to examine the longitudinal relationship between economic development and age-specific fertility rates.
Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course