Changes in Mortality in the Second Half of 19th and First Half of 20th Centuries: An Event History Analysis with Monthly Data in Rural Population in Serbia

Daniela Arsenovic , University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences
Renata Fekete, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences

Main objective of this paper is to explore overall and cause-specific mortality in the Backo Petrovo Selo (Serbia), particularly in terms of long-term changes due to first and second demographic transition. Mortality data (on monthly level, by age, gender and causes of death) for Backo Petrovo Selo were collected from parish registers, from 1850 until 1950. For the purpose of this paper crude death rate (CDR) was calculated for overall mortality as well as by gender. In order to investigate seasonal changes of mortality over time, coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) was calculated. Follow-up changes in overall mortality since 1850 shows strong oscillation in CDR from 38.5 to 15‰ (in 1950). Similar trend was founded for both gender. Average age at death (AAD) during the second half of 19th century was not exceeding 20 years, but in first half of 20th century continuously increase in AAD was observed, and around 1950 it was about 40 years. Analysis of causes of death conducted from 1868, gives evidence that communicable diseases were leading causes of death. The origin causes of death were classified in 9 groups: Infectious and parasitic diseases; Neoplasms; cardiovascular diseases, Influenza, pneumonia and bronchitis; Diarrhoea; Certain degenerative diseases; Certain diseases of infancy; Injuries and external causes; All other and ill-defined causes of death. Due to the fact that majority of causes of death were communicable diseases, CSVM shows shift oscillation, without exact seasonal pattern.

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 Presented in Session P2. Poster Session Ageing, Health and Mortality