Specification of the Key Unused Potentials of Working-Age Population: The Case with Macedonia

Goran Miladinov , Independent Researcher

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of unused potentials of working-age population in terms of level of employment rate in the State of Macedonia. By examining data about employment and unemployment categories from LFS in Macedonia during 1996-2017 it was found that large part from the working-age population is not employed. The estimation with the OLS HC5 estimator indicates that the female employment (at 5% level) and youth unemployment (at 10% level) have both positive significant impact on the employment rate. Hence, the effect of these variables has increased the employment rate in Macedonia during this mentioned period. R-squared and adjusted R-squared measures indicate that about 90% of the variation in the employment rate is explained by variations in the selected explanatory variables. The rest of about 10% of the variations are not explained by this model, i.e., due to some other factors. Both the non-robust F-statistic and the robust Wald F-statistic show that the non-intercept coefficients are jointly statistically significant. The results from the influence statistics, point to observations of 1997, 2003, 2015 and 2017 as being an outliers. The leverage plot results support the standpoint that observations of 2001 and 2003 years have high leverage in the relationship between employment and all explanatory variables included in the model. Key words: unused potentials; working-age population; OLS HC5 method; LFS; Macedonia

See paper

 Presented in Session P3. Poster Session Migration, Economics, Environment, Methods, History and Policy