Application of Goodness-of-Fit Tests for the Gompertz Distribution to Identify Structural Deviations from the Exponential Pattern of Human Death Rates

Trifon I. Missov , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark
Laszlo Nemeth, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

We aim to determine the age span of pure Gompertz mortality for all available Human Mortality Database populations (by period and cohort) to identify (i) the onset of aging (the starting age of Gompertz mortality), (ii) the age span and magnitude of non-aging-related mortality (e.g. accident-related mortality at young-adult ages, alcohol-related mortality at later adult ages, etc.), (iii) the age of mortality deceleration (the last age of Gompertz mortality) and their time trends. For that, we apply goodness-of-fit tests for the Gompertz distribution by extending the framework by Lenart and Missov (2016) to account for censoring and truncation. Preliminary findings (a) support the shifting-mortality hypothesis, i.e. the age of mortality deceleration increases with time, and (b) show two age-ranges of disruption for Gompertz mortality - pertaining to the "accident hump'' and excess mortality due to alcohol, cancer, etc.

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 Presented in Session P2. Poster Session Ageing, Health and Mortality