Fernando Fernandes , Independent Consultant & Researcher
Cassio M. Turra, Demography Department, Cedeplar, UFMG
Eduardo L. G. Rios-Neto, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
We analyze the burden of population aging in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems from a period perspective in the world from 1950 to 2100. We benefit from using data that represent all stages of the demographic transition and a variety of demographic trajectories, to elucidate the primacy of changes in period population age structures to the equilibrium of PAYG systems. We investigate to what degree the burden of population aging befalls contributors and beneficiaries in different period policy designs of PAYG systems. Also, we propose a framework to investigate the effectiveness of policies that adjust the retirement age based on gains in longevity to counterbalance the effects of population aging. We examine and apply a method introduced by Bayo and Faber (1981) that adjusts the retirement age based on gains in the mean age at death. We also compare the authors’ initial adjustment with a new measurement for the age of retirement based on gains in the modal age at death.
Presented in Session 51. Policies for Ageing Populations